Why your team will — and won't — win the 2024 World Series

Welcome to nan astir unpredictable long of nan year. While parity successful Major League Baseball seems greater than ever, it's been a cloth of nan postseason since nan rotate of nan century. No squad has won consecutive World Series titles since nan 2000 Yankees, a streak that intent proceed arsenic nan defending champion Texas Rangers person thing to take sides this October. 

While location are caller and acquainted favorites heading into these playoffs, caller history has shown that nan past six months should beryllium taken alongside a atom of salt. It's each astir that person tin drawback occurrence complete nan adjacent 4 weeks. And each 12 — well, 13 for now — remaining clubs are contenders.

With that, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar make nan lawsuit for for that logic each postseason subordinate intent and won't win nan World Series successful 2024. 

(Teams are listed by seeding. The National League's last 2 wild-card seeds intent beryllium wished Monday by nan Braves-Mets doubleheader. World Series likelihood from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. New York Yankees
World Series odds: +450

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: The Yankees ain nan champion discourtesy successful nan American League, and moreover though there's a steep drop-off successful accumulation aft their top-heavy bosom of nan order, they've still managed to overpower opposing pitching staffs passim nan people of a nine-inning game. Facing Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is simply a pitcher's nightmare, and if Giancarlo Stanton tin replicate his .963 postseason OPS and Austin Wells recaptures immoderate of his late-summer magic, location intent beryllium small prime but to spell done New York's move duo, alternatively than conscionable springiness them free passes. The Big Three of Judge, Soto, and Gerrit Cole operating astatine their champion this October gives nan Yankees a clear advantage that could return them each nan way to nan Fall Classic.

Why they won't: Defense and silly, unforced errors. Gleyber Torres' suboptimal baserunning is simply a glaring issue, peculiarly because nary different subordinate has been thrown retired astatine nan sheet much than nan Yankees' 2nd baseman this year, but he's not nan only 1 alongside mistakes connected nan basepaths. The Yankees are classed dormant past successful baserunning metrics and Soto, too, has made questionable decisions during attempting to advance. Too often this year, we've seen Alex Verdugo failing to hustle retired of nan box, and different players astatine times lacking heads-up decision-making. Rookie Jasson Dominguez has been having rather nan escapade successful near field, struggling to make catchable plays and mostly appearing uncomfortable. Other playoff contenders are overmuch cleaner and sharper connected defense, to nan constituent successful that spot this flaw could beryllium fatal. — Deesha Thosar

2. Cleveland Guardians
World Series odds: +1100

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: They person nan champion bullpen and person successful nan majors. Emmanuel Clase has a 0.61 ERA connected nan annum and has converted each of his past 34 prevention opportunities. Each of nan Guardians' 4 most-used relievers — Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith — person an ERA beneath 2.00 for nan year. The Cleveland bullpen's 2.57 ERA is nan lowest people of immoderate alleviation group since nan 2013 Braves. If nan Guardians build an early lead, nan game's over. Superstar José Ramírez has immoderate thief successful nan powerfulness section this annum from Josh Naylor, and deadline summation Lane Thomas and rookie Kyle Manzardo are heating upward astatine nan correct time.

Why they won't: Cleveland's elite arms astatine nan backmost extremity tin stifle immoderate opponent, but building a lead to get to those behemoths intent beryllium an issue. The Guardians rank 17th successful OPS connected nan play and 26th since nan break. Their offense has nan lowest hard-hit complaint successful shot during their starting pitchers rank 24th successful ERA. No squad has won a World Series alongside a rotation that classed extracurricular nan apical 10 successful ERA since nan 2015 Royals. The only move nan squad made to reside nan rumor was trading for Alex Cobb, that person was injured nan full first half. He has been constricted to 3 starts each season. Matthew Boyd provided a second-half spark, but speech from Tanner Bibee, nan options don't precisely animate confidence. — Rowan Kavner

3. Houston Astros
World Series odds: +850

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: They cannot beryllium counted retired till nan last retired of an elimination game. Many group don't crave to perceive this, but that nan Astros person done to win their seventh section heading successful nan past 8 years is thing short of remarkable. They were 10 games down nan first-place Mariners successful precocious June, dealing alongside injuries to aggregate cardinal players, only to clinch nan AL West again alongside their 3rd different head successful six years. The Astros person won earlier by cruising, but these past mates of years they've gone into October battle-tested to sphere a now eight-year streak of playoff appearances. That benignant of pedigree tin frighten opponents earlier moreover stepping onto nan field. Once again, Houston has nan roster talent and nan thoroughfare cred to get it done.

Why they won't: Yordan Alvarez's knee wounded and imaginable first-year head stumbles. The Astros slugger has been specified an integral portion of their caller runs, including slugging six homers and tallying 15 RBI successful 11 playoff games past year. With their playoff armament dealing alongside a sprained correct knee, it's unclear if Alvarez intent moreover play successful nan postseason, fto unsocial beryllium patient capable to do thing but DH. That could limit sheet appearances for catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini. Alvarez's wounded couldn't person travel astatine a worse long for nan Astros. Then there's nan anonymous constituent of Joe Espada's first long managing successful nan playoffs, and each nan nerves and indecision that could travel it. Espada has done patient to this point, but he'll person to enactment intact arsenic nan lights get brighter. — Deesha Thosar

4. Baltimore Orioles
World Series odds: +1200

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: A talented discourtesy and a certified ace successful Corbin Burnes. Baltimore's No. 1 starter becomes a free supplier this winter, and nan Orioles intent beryllium depending connected him to return them to nan World Series during they person him, peculiarly because astir of nan arms down Burnes are little than threatening. Since 2020, only Wheeler (24.5) has a higher fWAR than Burnes (21.4). Competitive to his core, it intent beryllium fascinating to timepiece Burnes trial his ain limits successful Baltimore's playoff run, specified days and weeks earlier he explores nan marketplace beneath supplier Scott Boras' guidance. There is already nary uncertainty he intent participate free agency arsenic baseball's apical disposable pitcher, and it intent only boost his entreaty if he's towing a World Series ring.

Why they won't: Their suboptimal 2nd half. The Orioles were nan champion squad successful shot to statesman nan year, only to look for illustration a wholly different ballclub since nan All-Star break. Their bullpen has really wounded them these past fewer months, ranking 27th successful nan fields successful ERA (4.60) and 18th successful WHIP (1.28) since July 19. They had respective chances to drawback nan Yankees, that person besides spiraled into nan All-Star break, for nan section lead. But nan O's squandered immoderate and each opportunity to capitalize down nan stretch. There person been cardinal players successful prolonged slumps, and it's easy to hide that this is still a youthful roster because of their astonishing division-clinching title to nan playoffs past year. Momentum is still possible, but nan O's mightiness person excessively galore mobility marks to reply astatine this stage. — Deesha Thosar

5. Kansas City Royals
World Series odds: +2500

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: They person a superstar successful Bobby Witt Jr. putting jointly 1 of nan top all-around seasons from a shortstop ever and 1 of nan apical catchers and rotations successful nan playoff field. Their starting pitchers intent participate nan postseason alongside nan lowest ERA of immoderate squad playing successful October. In Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha, nan Royals boast 3 starting pitchers that person rank successful nan apical 20 successful ERA. The club's relievers haven't been rather truthful reliable — but that hasn't been an rumor lately.  The Kansas City bullpen ranks successful nan apical 10 successful ERA this month, settling successful down boosts from Daniel Lynch, that person hasn't allowed a tally since getting recalled successful precocious August, and deadline summation Lucas Erceg.

Why they won't: At a long you'd dream to beryllium building immoderate momentum going into October, nan Royals person a losing grounds this month. It's not a coincidence that coincides alongside nan nonaccomplishment of their first baseman. The deficiency of extent successful nan lineup has been exposed aft Vinnie Pasquantino's thumb wounded precocious past month. Since he went down, nan Kansas City discourtesy ranks past successful nan fields successful each slash statement category. Pasquantino could beryllium backmost for nan postseason, but nan magnitude of nan lineup intent stay an issue. Of nan 13 Royals batters alongside astatine slightest 20 at-bats this month, 7 are hitting beneath .200. And during nan Royals' bullpen has been beardown lately, it's still a group that ranks successful nan bottommost half of nan athletics successful ERA and strikeout complaint successful nan season's 2nd half. — Rowan Kavner

6. Detroit Tigers
World Series odds: +2700

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: Youthful exuberance, paired alongside morganatic talent, tin beryllium a concealed armament successful nan postseason. Whether it's 24-year-old outfielder Riley Greene's .827 OPS, aliases Kerry Carpenter's beardown return from injury, aliases nan impactful prospects they called upward to complement emerging talents, each nan Tigers do lately is win. Plus, Detroit's bullpen sneakily owns nan fourth-best ERA successful nan large leagues. The alleviation entity of Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest has been each kinds of dominant, and that's a immense X-factor arsenic agelong arsenic nan Tigers discourtesy tin springiness them immoderate tally support. A.J. Hinch is managing this year's Cinderella Story squad and Detroit's underdog constituent could beryllium nan spoiler for immoderate playoff favorites — moreover though it's a agelong shot.

Why they won't: Ultimately, this is simply a lineup lacking stars alongside nary existent acquisition having that it takes to get done nan gauntlet that is postseason baseball. We saw really quickly nan youthful and inexperienced Orioles were dismantled by nan Texas Rangers arsenic early arsenic nan wild-card information past year, and it could astonishment precisely nary 1 if nan Tigers fell to nan aforesaid fate. Their deficiency of pitching extent is different interest successful October. Imagine really overmuch amended their chances would've been if they hadn't traded Jack Flaherty to nan Dodgers, and he was lined upward to transportation down ace Tarik Skubal? It's astonishing that Detroit is moreover connected this list, and for that, nan nine deserves a spending spree from ownership this acold play for value veterans that person intent support 2024's promising roster. — Deesha Thosar

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
World Series odds: +350

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: Their pitching unit is depleted, they've won less than 100 games successful a afloat play for nan first long since 2018 and still … present nan Dodgers are, nan apical seed successful nan National League alongside nan champion grounds successful baseball. Despite their deficiencies, they person Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (assuming he is capable to return from his ankle wounded successful long for nan playoffs). That trio positive a highly tin supporting formed down them led by Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Max Muncy mightiness beryllium capable to outslug nan pitching concerns. The deadline acquisitions of Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman could beryllium conscionable capable to springiness them everything they need.

Why they won't: So, astir those pitching concerns … really galore playoff games could a squad win alongside a rotation starring immoderate operation of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan? Well, each of them intent beryllium unavailable to nan Dodgers astatine that long nan almanac flips to October. Considering nan up-and-down play for Walker Buehler and really small location is disposable to nan Dodgers down him, there's a batch riding connected nan occurrence of Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, that person missed astir 3 months alongside a enarthrosis injury. Too much, perhaps. — Rowan Kavner

2. Philadelphia Phillies
World Series odds: +360

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: They're a well-balanced team. The Phillies are soft successful respective facets of nan game, including a ascendant starting rotation led by Zack Wheeler, 1 of nan astir cool-under-pressure arms successful nan majors, and a potent discourtesy that's classed 5th successful MLB successful slugging. The Phillies are arsenic quiet arsenic they've ever been to bring a parade backmost to Philly aft getting stung by nan Astros successful nan World Series successful 2022 and collapsing against nan Diamondbacks successful nan NLCS past year. After a heartbreaking offseason and a wished regular season, they crave to beryllium they tin decorativeness nan job. They're already successful amended style than successful years past by winning their first section heading since 2011. The Phillies participate October arsenic 1 of nan apical 3 teams to beat, alongside nan Yankees and Dodgers.

Why they won't: The bullpen, and nan discourtesy astatine that long Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber aren't crushing location runs. Dave Dombrowski did a bully occupation astatine nan commerce deadline by bolstering nan alleviation corps, nan Craig Kimbrel-induced Achilles bottommost that much aliases little led to their illness successful past year's NLCS. This long around, nan summation of Carlos Esteves successful nan operation should thief a awesome deal, but their bullpen is still classed 16th successful MLB successful ERA, alongside respective different playoff contenders sporting better, much complete units. The Phillies mightiness request their starters to spell arsenic heavy arsenic imaginable to minimize bullpen usage, and moreover past location are nary guarantees alongside this group. Plus, nan discourtesy tin beryllium somewhat flaky astatine that long nan habitual suspects aren't crushing bombs, and that's a interest for an different ascendant Phillies team. — Deesha Thosar

3. Milwaukee Brewers
World Series odds: +1900

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes … and still managed to combine 1 of nan champion pitching staffs successful nan sport. Freddy Peralta leads an unheralded rotation that includes a rookie successful Tobias Myers that person deserves much attraction than he has received, but that guides this squad is simply a bullpen that leads nan NL alongside a 3.17 ERA. The group was already electrical alongside Devin Williams retired and, to nary one's surprise, looks moreover amended since his return.  The shutdown person hasn't allowed a tally successful September. Offensively, nan nonaccomplishment of Christian Yelich hurts, but nan powerfulness of William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins, nan velocity of Brice Turang and nan operation of some provided by Willy Adames and breakout rookie Jackson Chourio gives head Pat Murphy plentifulness to toil with.

Why they won't: That discourtesy has started to show cracks, ranking 27th successful batting mean and 26th successful on-base percent successful September. Lefties successful peculiar tin origin problems for nan lineup. But nan biggest reddish emblem is nan rotation, that conscionable mightiness not person capable elite arms to transportation nan squad done October. Peralta orchestrated his 2nd consecutive 200-strikeout season, but Myers is simply a rookie, Colin Rea has a 7.43 ERA complete his past 7 appearances and seasoned summation Frankie Montas has an ERA adjacent to 5.00 connected nan year. — Rowan Kavner

4. San Diego Padres
World Series odds: +1100

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: The new-look Padres discourtesy alongside Luis Arráez astatine nan apical boasts nan highest batting mean and lowest whiff and strikeout rates successful nan sport. Jurickson Profar is having a profession annum astatine property 31, Jackson Merrill has emerged arsenic a Rookie of nan Year contender astatine 21, and their stars are basking astatine nan correct time. But it goes beyond nan offense. The Padres person been nan champion squad successful shot successful nan 2nd half successful ample portion owed to a pitching unit that has nan National League's lowest ERA since nan break. San Diego's rotation is full again and pitching lights retired successful September, and nan deadline-bolstered bullpen is 1 of nan sport's astir imposing. All nan pieces are location for a heavy run.

Why they won't: As bully arsenic nan pitching unit has been, it's ne'er awesome going into nan postseason alongside nan ninth inning emotion unsettled. Robert Suarez is an All-Star this year, but he has a 6.00 ERA and 3 blown saves successful September and has allowed hits successful 11 of his past 14 appearances. Michael King has played a important domiciled successful nan rotation's success, but he's successful uncharted territory having already shattered his erstwhile precocious successful innings pitched. Behind him, a season-ending wounded to Ha-Seong Kim now intent unit nan Padres to displacement Xander Bogaerts backmost to shortstop. It's nitpicking, but that's not an perfect protect script successful San Diego. — Rowan Kavner

5. Atlanta Braves
World Series odds: +2500

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: Chris Sale, group to win his first profession Cy Young, is arsenic lethal a armament arsenic it gets successful nan playoffs. The 1-2 punch of Sale and Max Fried, positive righty Reynaldo Lopez and nan emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, makes Atlanta scary successful a 3 aliases five-game series. Pitching wins successful October, and Atlanta's arms person nan champion ERA successful nan fields — yes, topping moreover Seattle's pitching staff. No squad has travel adjacent to matching nan staff's full strikeouts, nan bullpen is beardown and nan full entity is tin of carrying nan Braves to their 2nd title since 2021. Plus, it seems for illustration Atlanta excels astatine that long its expectations are debased – à la ‘21 lacking Ronald Acuña Jr. It's not for illustration things went patient astatine that long they flashed nan champion regular-season grounds successful shot past year, only to illness against their rival Phillies successful nan NLDS. Perhaps, coming retired of nan wild-card broadside of nan postseason bracket intent beryllium much ideal.

Why they won't: Then again, possibly this conscionable isn't their year. As overmuch in installments arsenic nan Braves should person for making it this acold lacking their stars, this is precisely nan long of annum astatine that long it's difficult to disregard nan onslaught of injuries to Acuña, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and moreover A.J. Minter. The Braves don't person arsenic overmuch extent arsenic they're secondhand to relying connected successful nan playoffs, and that could travel backmost to wounded them. Their discourtesy is different modular area of reliability that has underwhelmed this year. In position of wRC+, Marcell Ozuna is nan only hitter successful nan Braves lineup to look among nan apical 45 hitters successful nan fields this season. Atlanta's on-base percent is conscionable convention mean this year, and that could beryllium particularly concerning successful nan postseason against nan apical pitchers successful nan game. — Deesha Thosar

6. New York Mets
World Series odds: +3200

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: Grimace is wished to propulsion retired nan first transportation successful a World Series game. The Mets' quirky play has revealed a consciousness of camaraderie and chemistry that tin beryllium nan worldly of magic for World Series champions. There is thing to beryllium said of nan nine digging itself retired of nan basement successful May to becoming 1 of nan hottest teams successful baseball, led by a first-year head successful Carlos Mendoza that person expertly guided a sinking vessel to October baseball. Stars for illustration Francisco Lindor (enjoying an MVP caliber season), J.D. Martinez (2018 World Series winner), and Edwin Díaz (one of nan champion closers successful baseball) tin beryllium vulnerable successful nan playoffs. But Pete Alonso has been somewhat of a sleeping carnivore this play that person highly patient could awaken upward conscionable successful long earlier his upcoming free agency to beryllium nan wildest of nan bunch, yet.

Why they won't: While Sean Manaea and Luis Severino had bounce-back seasons that were captious to nan Mets clinching a playoff spot, it remains concerning if nan rotation wide is simply a large capable threat to spell heavy into October, fto unsocial win nan Fall Classic. Manaea has a 15.26 ERA successful 3 profession playoff outings (two starts). Severino has historically struggled to measurement upward successful large games, giving upward 25 earned runs successful 43.2 playoff innings alongside nan Yankees. Behind those 2 arms, nan durability of Jose Quintana, that person pitches amended alongside longer remainder periods, is thing of an unknown. And southpaw David Peterson is coming disconnected an up-and-down September and lacks playoff experience. — Deesha Thosar

7. Arizona Diamondbacks
World Series odds: +4800

Why they'll beryllium 2024 World Series champions: The D-backs person committed nan fewest errors successful nan athletics again, but if past year's NL champs are going to decorativeness nan occupation successful 2024, it's an discourtesy that ranks successful nan apical 2 successful each slash statement class that intent beryllium starring nan way. All-Star starter Ketel Marte has nan third-highest OPS among qualified NL players, Christian Walker should person been an All-Star, Joc Pederson has an OPS complete .900, Eugenio Suarez has 29 homers successful a bounce-back year, Randal Grichuk is hitting complete .400 this period and Corbin Carroll is uncovering his form. It's not a fluke that nan Snakes person MLB's apical discourtesy since nan break.

Why they won't: As nan discourtesy is thriving, nan pitching unit is floundering. D-backs pitchers person nan highest ERA successful MLB this month. The issues are widespread. The bullpen has an ERA complete 6.00 and nan rotation has an ERA complete 5.00 successful September — a astonishment considering nan pieces Arizona added to endeavor to remedy some issues. Newcomers Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez person been replacement level players this season, each alongside an ERA complete 5.00. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly demonstrated past annum they don't request overmuch thief to transportation nan squad's rotation, but nan bullpen conscionable doesn't look tin correct now of providing overmuch support. — Rowan Kavner

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He antecedently covered nan L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was calved successful California, grew upward successful Texas, past moved backmost to nan West Coast successful 2014. Follow him connected Twitter astatine @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She antecedently covered nan Mets arsenic a hit newsman for nan New York Daily News. The girl of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew upward connected Long Island and now lives successful Queens. Follow her connected Twitter astatine @DeeshaThosar.

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