Not just China, Trump 2.0 could spell trouble for U.S. allies as he doubles down on tariff talk

Donald Trump, who has been doubling down connected his tariff-heavy waste and acquisition policy, appears to person shifted nan attraction of his protectionist schedule from China to immoderate of nan closest U.S. allies.  

Speaking astatine a run arena successful Savannah, Georgia, connected Tuesday, nan Republican statesmanlike nominee said he would build upon nan tariff policies of his first word successful an effort to return manufacturing jobs from overseas countries — some friends and foe. 

"You will spot a wide exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, from Korea to North Carolina, from Germany to correct present successful Georgia," he said successful his mostly economic-centered speech. 

"I want German car companies to go American car companies, I want them to build their plants here," he added. 

In his first term, Trump had imposed billions of dollars worth of duties connected Chinese equipment arsenic portion of efforts to rectify what he saw arsenic an unfair waste and acquisition balance. Trump has said he would see caller tariffs connected imports from nan state astatine rates of 60% aliases higher.

U.S. friends could go a cardinal target of Trump's "America First" argumentation that is progressively grouping European and Asian partners alongside rival China. The erstwhile President has projected broad tariffs arsenic precocious arsenic 20% that would deed imported bully from each countries.

"We person been treated truthful badly, mostly by friends ... our friends dainty america really worse than our alleged enemies," Trump said astatine a rally successful Wisconsin earlier this month. 

"On military, we protect them and past they screw america connected trade. We're not going to fto it hap anymore. We're going to beryllium a tariff nation," he added. 

The comments echoed statements Trump made astir Taiwan earlier this twelvemonth erstwhile he accused it of taking "about 100%" of U.S. spot business. He besides said that nan democratically governed land should salary nan U.S. for its defense. 

Trump has agelong sought to spot economical and negotiated unit connected U.S. allies, accusing them of "free-riding," and his caller statements awesome he's doubling down connected that approach, said Nick Marro, Lead for Global Trade astatine Economist Intelligence. 

Experts person said that Japan is besides worried astir what could beryllium different "transactional" Trump Presidency and his mentions of 100% tariffs connected definite car imports. "Will that see Japanese automakers? So there's a batch of uncertainty present astatine nan infinitesimal astir what nan adjacent 5 years could look like," writer William Pesek told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" successful July.

"One of nan riskiest aspects of Trump's proclivity towards tariffs is that different countries won't return these actions sitting down. Retaliation by different U.S. waste and acquisition partners — whether that beryllium via reciprocal, retaliatory tariffs, aliases different non-tariff measures — is simply a imaginable consequence of each of this," Marro said.

Trump besides said connected Tuesday that he plans to create his "manufacturing renaissance" done nan implementation of firm taxation cuts, nan creation of low-tax typical economical zones and taxation credits for companies moving accumulation to nan U.S.

"These policies could perchance pull immoderate manufacturing backmost to nan U.S., peculiarly for industries delicate to waste and acquisition barriers," said Stephen Weymouth, a professor of world governmental system astatine Georgetown University. 

"However, these plans are improbable to bring astir a wide reshoring of industries, fixed nan complexities of world proviso chains and higher labour costs successful nan U.S.," he added. 

Economist Stephen Roach besides told CNBC that Trump's tariffs would wounded America's waste and acquisition partners while only expanding nan costs of equipment for American consumers and manufacturers. This is accordant pinch mainstream economical opinion connected tariffs.

"U.S. manufacturers who trust connected overseas parts and components would return a double deed — their inputs would beryllium much costly because of Trump's tariffs, and their exported products would beryllium much costly because of retaliatory tariffs," said William Reinsch, Scholl Chair successful International Business astatine nan Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

Trump, however, has maintained that different countries will ft nan bill. "I'm not raising your taxes; I'm raising China's and each of these countries successful Asia and each complete nan world, including nan European Union, which is 1 of nan astir egregious," he said astatine his Wisconsin rally.

Reinsch said that nan tariffs, if implemented, would besides correspond a clear break betwixt long-standing U.S. waste and acquisition argumentation and mainstream economical thinking. 

Particularly erstwhile it comes to dealing pinch China, nan existent Biden management has heavy relied connected a coordinated attack pinch like-minded partners for illustration Japan and nan Netherlands to enforce waste and acquisition restrictions. 

While nan Biden management has maintained astir of Trump's China tariffs and moreover accrued levies connected circumstantial high-tech industries, Reinsch described nan quality betwixt nan two's approaches to waste and acquisition restrictions arsenic "Trump's sledgehammer vs. Biden/Harris' scalpel."

Still, nan grade to which Trump's tariff proposals are genuine aliases much of a threat has besides been a taxable of debate. 

In an interview pinch CNBC TV18 released connected Tuesday, Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, said immoderate of Trump's apical advisors had told him that nan projected tariff rates were much of a negotiating maneuver for favorable waste and acquisition deals alternatively than an expected outcome.